BRIDGE TO SOMEWHERE 3: Joe the Gay Porn Star
Oct 21, 2008
Two more weeks of nail biting and backbiting (an ongoing weekly summary of the presidential campaign).
By Ben Westhoff
October 20, 2008 - Hunt for the Red in October: It's about time for a good old fashioned October surprise, no? Though it seems unlikely arms-for-hostages deals will be made or any old drunk driving charges will be brought to light (the former works much better than the latter, by the way), the desperate Republican brain trust is surely plotting overtime how to put out Barack Obama's fire or sink his ship or fry his noodle, or whatever.
But while we await an Al Qaeda attack on Scranton, or for claims from an anonymous interstellar source that Obama has extra-terrestrial blood, the best John McCain could come up with this week was Joe the Plumber. An ostensibly undecided voter from outside Toledo who had questioned Obama about his tax policy at a recent rally, Joe wanted to start his own plumbing company, you see, and worried that Obama's tax plan would fuck him up. Never fear, Obama told him, patting his bald dome and rubbing his belly simultaneously; spreading around the wealth would be best for everyone.
This was a rare gaffe on Obama's part, and McCain referred to old Joey Lead Pipe's story ad nauseum during Wednesday's final debate. Obama's plan to raise taxes on those making over 250,000 grand would initiate class warfare to a level not seen since Che Guevara was riding Harleys around South America, McCain went on. (He later called Obama a socialist and said his welfare-promoting economic plan would result in a buncha government cheese Chicago ladies driving around in Aston Martins sittin' on dubs.)
The only problem with all this is that Joe isn't a licensed plumber, his name isn't Joe, and he's actually a Republican. His handle is Samuel J. Wurzelbacher, it turns out, and more importantly he surely wouldn't make enough to be affected by Obama's plan even if he did start his own business.
So with poor Joe's story ripped apart he was forced to appear on television next to a once-fat ex-governor of Arkansas. (Not Bill Clinton but Mike Huckabee, star of new Fox News show Huckabee.) McCain's camp was left to regroup, but all they could come up with was putting Sarah Palin on Saturday Night Live. The show's thirst for ratings trumped its ideological bent, but the result was a total dud, capped by the uncomfortable spectacle of Alex Baldwin insulting Palin to her face and then telling her she was hot. Whereas Hillary Clinton's visit to the set worked because Amy Poehler's portrayal of her came from a place of love, it's fairly certain Tina Fey's comes from a place of fear and/or anger. Call it a net loss for both sides.
In any case, the polls weren't quite as friendly to Obama supporters this week as they were last week. West Virginia now appears to be out of play, and North Dakota seems unlikely. But a polling breakdown of individual swing counties appears to show just how deep Obama's support is, as he boasts solid leads in those areas in states like Maryland, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
But while liberals will probably still get the opportunity to feel swell about themselves come November 4, they should not get cocky. John Kerry won some of those same suburban counties four years ago, after all, and polls have historically erred on the side of Democrats. In fact, polls seem especially suspect this year for a number of reasons. Some, like Zogby's, try to duplicate the voting demographics of the last election. Others focus on "likely" voters. But by all indications turnout won't mirror previous votes. I predict that at the end of the day we will be surprised not by the Bradley effect, but by the high rates of Black people showing up at the polls. (A trend born out by some early voting tallies.)
Here's betting Obama does Lil Wayne-type numbers. After all, Wayne is someone else who does quite well among both the urban poor and educated white liberals (aka music critics), as well having vague affiliations with Martians and other unsavory characters.
Who knows, an October surprise may end up fucking up the Republicans more than the Democrats. You can bet on a blue filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, say, if it turns out Joe the Plumber is actually the gay porn star his name implies.
Backtrack:
Bridge To Somewhere Week 2: Something in the Ayers
Bridge To Somewhere Week 1:Dizzy with spin
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